India’s GST reset has done what no festive discount could: it moved friction out of the checkout. Two slabs—5% and 18%—replace the old spread; many FMCG essentials slide to 5%, mass-market autos and durables (small cars, 2W ≤350cc, TVs/ACs) drop from 28% to 18%, and individual life & health insurance goes to 0% GST from 22 September 2025. Prices step down, wallets open up, and marketing math tilts from “defend share” to “grab share.” In other words, the consumer just found the accelerator—and TV, with its instant reach, is back in the fast lane.
Before the policy shift, TV advertising expenditure (TV-AdEx) for CY-2025 was tracking to ₹36,520 crore. With only four months left in the year, you’d expect a modest nudge at best. Instead, Media Pro’s model points to a +2% to +3% uplift across Sep–Dec, adding ₹730–₹1,095 crore and revising the year to ₹37,250–₹37,615 crore. That is not merely sentiment; it’s velocity—unit movement in kirana and modern trade, faster replacement cycles for durables, and a re-energised small-car/2 wheeler’s funnel converting TV reach into showroom footfalls.
The bigger story is 2026. Give the market a full planning cycle under the two-slab regime and the 0% GST insurance unlock, and TV-AdEx shows a structural uplift of +5% to +8% vs. a no-cut scenario. Yes, 15–30% of incremental video rupees will still flow to CTV/digital (that secular shift isn’t reversing), but TV regains its primacy in festive windows, launches, and trust-heavy categories. Think of it as a new steady-state where TV does fewer vanity GRPs and more outcome-anchored bursts.
Category by category, the choreography is clear. FMCG—still the mass-reach engine—turns price cuts and extra grammage into market-share sprints: +3–5% TV-AdEx in Q4, +6–10% in 2026. Automobiles (entry-mass) benefit from eased sticker shock and revived launch calendars: +2–4% in Q4, +8–12% in 2026. Consumer durables/electronics re-enter upgrade lists as families swap “postpone” for “purchase”: +3–5% in Q4, +8–12% next year. Building materials/paints ride the renovation ripple: +2–3% in Q4, +6–10% in 2026. E-commerce/retail finds its deals suddenly feel deeper: +3–5% in Q4, +6–9% next year.
Then there’s insurance—the stealth protagonist. Removing 18% GST from a tax-inclusive premium slices the effective consumer price by ~15.25%, collapsing a key barrier to adoption. Expect aggressive land-grab behaviour: +15–20% TV-AdEx in Q4 as brands educate and acquire, graduating to +25–35% in 2026 as distribution and mid-ticket products scale. This is classic trust marketing territory—TV first, CTV to cap frequency, performance media to mop up intent.
For buyers, Q4 isn’t just “spend more”; it’s spend smarter. Anchor FCT: Sponsorships near 70:30 (autos/durables can push to 35% sponsorships), bias Prime ~60% for BFSI/auto credibility, hold CPRPs at ≤ last-festive avg +7%, and run burst–pause–burst through Navratri/Diwali into year-end sales. Pair every TV plan with a 5–10% CTV complement to manage frequency and capture cord-shy cohorts. Creatively, use price-off + value-add frames for FMCG/durables, protection/peace-of-mind for insurance.
The headline writes itself: GST went on a diet. Brands go on air. In 2025, treat the reform as an unplanned tailwind and lean into reach that converts. In 2026, plan for a cleaner price architecture and a resurgent insurance flywheel to add +5–8% on top of the trajectory. The risk isn’t overspending; it’s under-showing up while your category resets the scoreboard on national TV.
By: Vishal Khanna
Managing Director, Media Pro Research Technologies Pvt Ltd
vishal@mediaproresearch.com
+91 9867300480
