SBI Research: India is all set to receive the status of an upper middle income country by the end of the current decade, as per an analysis by the State Bank of India (SBI). Additionally, gross domestic product (GDP) of India has been revised to 7.3 percent from the previous prediction of 6.6 percent by the IMF.
The Gross Per Capita Income of India is likely to hit $4,000 to bring it in line with countries such as Indonesia and China as per the latest classification of the World Bank cited by the SBI report.
What Does the SBI Research Says?
India is likely to overtake Germany to become the world’s third-largest economy by 2028. Presently, the United States leads the top slot followed by China.
It was noted by SBI that it took almost 6 years for India to make a transition from low income to the lower middle income category in the year 2007 with GNI rising from $90 in 1962 to $910 in 2007. The country doubled to $2 trillion by 2014, another trillion by 2021, reached $4 trillion by 2025 and is likely to reach $5 trillion in the next two years. The per capita income of India is likely to reach $3000 in 2026 and $4000 by 2030 that would place it in the upper middle income category.
IMF’s World Economic Outlook (January 2026 update)
According to IMF’s World Economic Outlook (January 2026 update), the gross domestic product (GDP) of India has been revised to 7.3 percent from the previous prediction of 6.6 percent. The upward revision is primarily due to a reflection of stronger-than-expected growth in the third quarter followed by a powerful momentum in the fourth quarter.
The report added growth of India is expected to moderate to 6.4 percent in 2026 as well as 2027 as cyclical and temporary factors wane.
Interestingly, the growth rate of the global economy is pegged at just 3.3 percent in 2026 and 3.2 percent in 2027.
The per capital GNI of India would have to expand at a Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.5 percent if it wants to achieve the current high-income country per capita gross national income threshold of $13,936 by end of the year 2047.