India, the world’s most populous country, is on a fast-gliding path of fertility decline. Recent data shows the country’s total fertility rate has fallen to around 1.9 children per woman, below the replacement rate of 2.1, the level needed to keep a population stable from one generation to the next without relying on migration. In several states, the fertility rate is already well below the national average. Delhi has the lowest Total Fertility Rate in the country at 1.2, followed by Kerala and Tamil Nadu, both at 1.3. Andhra Pradesh, too, has slipped well below replacement, with its TFR reported at around 1.5. The state has recognised this as a serious concern, and Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu’s government has responded with a financial incentive scheme, offering ₹30,000 for a third child and ₹40,000 for a fourth.
Until recently, the dominant demographic conversation in India was about the demographic dividend, the advantage of having a large working-age population relative to the number of dependents it must support. That conversation is now quietly being replaced by a new one: the debate on the ageing population, which brings its own distinct set of challenges.
DON'T MISS
This piece does not attempt to explain why fertility is declining; that is a separate, more complicated question. Instead, it asks a narrower, more provocative one: will India become rich before it becomes old? To answer that without ambiguity, the definitions need to be precise, and I will use simple statistical computation to get there.
By “rich,” I mean India’s per capita income crossing the World Bank’s high-income threshold that currently stands at $13,936 in GNI per capita. By “old,” I mean the point at which India’s median age crosses 35 years, a commonly used demographic marker for when a young population structurally tips into an ageing one.
At present, India’s GDP per capita stands at $2,813 (IMF, 2026 estimate), roughly one-fifth of the high-income threshold. India’s median age today is 29.2 years. According to United Nations Population Division projections (World Population Prospects, 2024 revision, medium-fertility variant), that median age is set to cross 35 by 2041.
To become rich before it becomes old, by these definitions, India’s GDP per capita would need to climb from $2,813 to $13,936 by 2041. That is roughly a fivefold increase in fifteen years. Worked out as a compound annual growth rate, which means India’s per capita income would need to grow at 11.3% every year, for the next fifteen years. If the threshold itself is adjusted for inflation, then the bar moves further away.
The data shows that India’s GDP per capita actually grew from about $1,606 in 2015 to $2,675 in 2025, a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%. If India simply continues growing at that historical 5.2% pace, its GDP per capita in 2041 would reach only about $6,047, less than half the high-income threshold. At that rate, India would not cross into high-income territory until roughly 2057, sixteen years after its median age has already crossed 35.
By this specific pair of definitions, the numbers point to an uncomfortable answer: India is currently on track to grow old well before it grows rich, unless its growth rate accelerates sharply and stays there.
By- Nirmal Singh, Ph.D.
Assistant Professor , Department of Economics, Easwari School of Liberal Arts (ESLA), SRM University -AP
