James Cameron returns to Pandora once again as Avatar: Fire and Ash hits cinemas worldwide tomorrow. Expectations are naturally sky-high. After all, the first two films in the franchise are among the biggest box office success stories in cinema history. Both Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water crossed the $2 billion mark globally and rewrote record books.
However, the early signs for Avatar 3 suggest a slower start.
According to trade estimates, Avatar: Fire and Ash is expected to earn around $90–105 million in North America during its opening weekend. Overseas markets are projected to add another $250–275 million. This puts the film’s global opening weekend in the range of $340–365 million.
These numbers are strong by normal standards. Yet, for an Avatar film, they fall short of expectations.
India Opening Tracking Of Avatar 3 Is Lower Than Previous Film
The situation looks similar in India. Early advance bookings indicate that Fire and Ash is tracking nearly 40 percent behind The Way of Water at the same stage. Trade projections suggest an opening day collection of around Rs 30–35 crore. This is notably lower than the Rs 48.50 crore opening posted by the second film.
Premium formats are expected to drive most of the revenue. IMAX 3D, 4DX 3D, and ICE 3D screens are seeing better traction. Still, the overall pace suggests a softer start than anticipated for a franchise known for setting benchmarks.
Is James Cameron Losing His Box Office Grip?
The big question now is unavoidable. Is James Cameron finally losing his iron grip on the global box office?
Well, Cameron’s films have never been about explosive openings alone. Both earlier Avatar films started strong but truly shocked the industry with their long theatrical runs. The Way of Water, in particular, built momentum week after week and went on to become a monster hit despite early doubts.
That said, audience behaviour has changed. Ticket prices are higher. Viewing habits are shifting. Big-screen fatigue is real. Even legendary filmmakers are not immune to these factors. A slower opening for Fire and Ash could reflect these changing dynamics rather than a loss of trust in Cameron as a storyteller.
Predicting the film’s lifetime box office based only on opening weekend numbers would be premature. If word of mouth clicks and visuals deliver the promised spectacle, the film could still surprise everyone.
What Avatar 3 (Avatar: Fire And Ash) Is About
Avatar 3 (also called Avatar: Fire and Ash) releases in Indian theatres on December 19, 2025. It will be available in English and dubbed in Hindi, Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada.
The story picks up after the events of The Way of Water. Jake Sully and Neytiri are dealing with grief following the death of their son, Neteyam. As they try to protect their family, they encounter a new and aggressive Na’vi tribe known as the Ash People, or the Mangkwan clan.
Led by Varang, this group represents a darker and more violent side of Pandora. The film explores moral conflict within the Na’vi world, breaking away from the idea that they are purely noble and peaceful.
Sam Worthington returns as Jake Sully, alongside Zoe Saldaña as Neytiri. Sigourney Weaver, Stephen Lang, and Kate Winslet reprise their roles. New faces include Oona Chaplin as Varang and David Thewlis as Peylak, the leader of the Wind Traders.
The film also features an original song by Miley Cyrus titled “Dream as One”.
With a runtime of 197 minutes, Fire and Ash is the longest film in the franchise so far. Advance bookings in India have already crossed interest from 1.4 million fans on ticketing platforms.
