El Nino chances rise, India sets up contingency plans

According to the India Meteorological Department, there is a nearly 70% chance that an El Nino will develop this monsoon, raising further is concerned that the weather phenomenon could endanger agriculture, consumer spending, and an economy that is still regarded as the fastest-growing in the world and better equipped to withstand global headwinds than most emerging markets.

Even as the government moved to take additional measures to protect farmers, particularly by setting up a system to provide specific advisory services and forecasts for each of India's 700+ districts based on various rainfall scenarios, IMD's updated assessment, which on April 11 had pegged the probability at 50%, was released.

The eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean's warming is what creates the monsoon-disturbing weather pattern, which disrupts the monsoon and frequently leads to drought in India.

According to the IMD, there is a 70% chance of El Nino in the months of June, July, and August, and that chance increases to 80% in the months of July, August, and September.

Region-specific mitigation plans

A senior official who requested anonymity said that the Union ministry of agriculture and IMD have been having monthly meetings to create region-specific mitigation plans in light of the impending El Nino (little boy in Spanish).

The fifth-largest economy in the world depends on the monsoon. The rain-bearing system is essential because only about half of the net-sown acreage in the nation has access to irrigation. 91 natural reservoirs that supply drinking water, industry, and electricity generation are also replenished.

“State governments are being provided with customised forecasts to prepare in advance,” an IMD official said. This year, IMD will offer agro-meteorological advisory services and projections for each of India's 700+ districts based on various rainfall scenarios, this individual continued. The information would be distributed through the network of federally-run agricultural institutes known as Krishi Vigyan Kendras.

Seven El Nino years occurred in India between 2001 and 2020. Four of these (2003, 2005, 2009–10, and 2015–16) led to droughts. Inflation was fueled in these years by a drop in kharif, or summer-sown farm output, of 16%, 8%, 10%, and 3%. Nearly half of the nation's annual food supply is derived from the kharif harvest.

“Most likely it will be a mild to moderate intensity El Nino,” said D Sivananda Pai, director of the state-run Institute of Climate Change Studies, Kottayam, Kerala.

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