Saurabh Mukherjea, founder of Marcellus Investment Managers, has issued a grave warning about the future of India’s white-collar workforce. According to him, up to 20 million Indians could soon be jobless, signalling one of the deepest employment crises the country’s middle class has ever faced.
Mukherjea emphasizes that this is not just another economic slowdown. Instead, it reflects a structural, technology-driven transformation accelerated by global trade uncertainties and rising protectionism. The traditional sectors that once fulfilled the middle-class aspirations—IT, banking, finance, and media—are now shrinking in their capacity to generate stable, salaried jobs.
White-Collar Job Engine Slowing Down
For decades, India’s white-collar job ecosystem powered dreams of secure employment and steady salaries. Mukherjea notes that this engine is now gradually shutting down, as more companies embrace leaner work models.
The shift isn’t merely cyclical—it represents a turning point. While job opportunities shrink, the number of people competing for them continues to rise, pushing many toward uncertain, gig-based work structures.
Automation and AI Disruption at the Core
One of the biggest drivers of this trend is the rapid adoption of AI and automation across Indian industries. Mukherjea reveals that even companies within his portfolio are using advanced technologies to boost output while drastically cutting manpower.
Tasks once performed by thousands of mid-level professionals—especially in IT services, finance, accounting, customer support, and advertising—are now increasingly handled by AI tools.
This shift has created a widening gap: India produces eight million graduates every year, yet modern companies can now scale operations without proportionately increasing their workforce. The era of office passes, fixed shifts, and cab drops, he warns, is fading—replaced by a push toward entrepreneurship, freelancing, and self-employment.
Debt Pressures and Global Risks Add to the Crisis
India’s households are already under immense financial strain, carrying one of the highest debt burdens globally. Real wages for white-collar employees have remained stagnant for almost a decade, forcing families to rely heavily on loans to maintain their lifestyles.
Mukherjea further highlights a major external threat: global trade tensions, particularly potential US tariffs on Indian exports. If such restrictions intensify, India could lose up to 20 million export-linked jobs, especially during key festive seasons when global demand peaks. This would push already indebted families into even deeper financial distress.
A Warning Sign for the Future
Mukherjea’s analysis paints a worrying picture:
- Fewer traditional jobs
- Rising reliance on technology
- Massive graduate inflow
- High household debt
- Looming global trade shocks