India, already home to the second-largest Muslim population globally after Indonesia, is poised to soon top the list, according to recent demographic projections. If the current trends continue, India may surpass Indonesia to become the country with the largest Muslim population in the world.
Muslim Growth Rate Stabilising but Still Significant
As per data from the Pew Research Center and India’s Census estimates, Muslims currently make up around 14.2% of the Indian population, which translates to over 200 million people. Despite the declining fertility rate in the community — now close to the national average — the absolute numbers continue to rise due to the existing population base and improved life expectancy.
Experts point out that this growth is not exponential and has significantly slowed over the past two decades. However, due to India’s large population size and Indonesia’s relatively slower demographic expansion, the numerical shift is inevitable.
What About the Hindu Population?
Hindus remain the majority community in India, accounting for approximately 79.8% of the population. However, like all communities, their fertility rate has declined due to urbanisation, better education, and increased use of family planning methods. While this has resulted in slower population growth, Hindus are still projected to remain the majority in India throughout this century.
Sociologists caution against reading the figures through a communal lens, stating that India's religious demographic changes are natural and not alarming. The country is likely to remain culturally and religiously diverse, with both Hindus and Muslims forming large, influential communities.
Global Implications and National Conversation
If India does become the world’s largest Muslim-populated nation, it could reshape diplomatic narratives, particularly with countries in the Middle East and Islamic world. Domestically, the development has sparked renewed discussion on population control, religious harmony, and social integration.