The debate over the 8th Pay Commission is gaining momentum among central government employees and pensioners, with many wondering if salaries will now “more than double.” However, experts say the reality is far more nuanced than popular belief.
What is the Fitment Factor?
The fitment factor is a multiplier applied to an employee’s existing basic pay to arrive at the revised basic salary under a new pay commission. For example, in the 7th Pay Commission, the fitment factor was set at 2.57, which raised the minimum basic pay from ₹7,000 to ₹18,000. Yet, contrary to the assumption that the entire salary rose 2.57 times, the actual average hike in take-home pay was just 14.3%.
Why the Real Hike is Lower
When a new pay commission is implemented, the Dearness Allowance (DA) — which has already accumulated over time — is merged into the new basic pay and reset to zero. This adjustment, along with the recalculation of other allowances, means the effective increase in total salary is much lower than what the fitment factor alone suggests.
What to Expect from the 8th Pay Commission
According to a report by Ambit, even if the 8th Pay Commission sets the fitment factor at 2.46, the actual salary hike is likely to be only 30–34%. Another projection by Kotak pegs the potential rise as low as 13%. Historically, the 6th Pay Commission, with a fitment factor of 1.86, delivered only a 20–25% increase in real salaries, while the 7th, despite a 2.57 multiplier, brought just a 14.3% jump.
| Pay Commission | Fitment Factor | Estimated Hike | Actual Hike |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6th | 1.86 | 86% | 20–25% |
| 7th | 2.57 | 157% | 14.3% |
| 8th (Expected) | 1.83–2.46 | 83%–146% | 30–34% (Ambit), 13% (Kotak) |
Experts say the figures make it clear — the fitment factor should not be mistaken as a direct percentage increase in total salary. Instead, the real hike will depend on multiple recalculations and allowance adjustments.
