The Omicron variant of coronavirus could cause between 24,700 to 74,800 deaths in the United Kingdom by April end, according to a new modelling study.
The researchers from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine suggest that the new variant of concern, which was first identified in South Africa, has the potential to cause a wave of transmission that could lead to a higher number of infections and hospitalisations than those witnessed during January 2021 in the event of no additional control measures over and above the current ‘Plan B’ policy in England.
Under the most optimistic scenario, a wave of infection is projected which could lead to a peak of over 2,000 daily hospital admissions, with 175,000 hospitalisations and 24,700 deaths between December 1, 2021 and April 30, 2022, if no additional control measures are implemented.
The optimistic scenario assumes a low immune escape of Omicron and high effectiveness of vaccine boosters.
“These results suggest that the introduction of Omicron B.1.1.529 variant in England will lead to a substantial increase in SARS-CoV2 transmission, which, in the absence of strict control measures, has the potential for substantially higher case rate than those recorded during the Alpha winter wave in 2020-21. This is due to Omicron’s apparent high transmissibility and ability to infect individuals with existing immunity to SARS-CoV2 from prior infection or from vaccination,” The Indian Express reported quoting the study.
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