Russian Oil: The United States appears set to reimpose full sanctions pressure on Russian crude, ending months of temporary relief that had let countries like India keep buying discounted barrels. President Trump indicated at the G7 summit in France that his administration is unlikely to renew the waiver again, arguing oil is now flowing freely through the Strait of Hormuz.
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How We Got Here
The standoff traces back to October 2025, when Washington sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil, Russia’s two largest oil producers. That pushed Russian crude flows to India to a three-year low by December. When the Israel-Iran war disrupted Gulf shipping in March 2026, Washington issued temporary waivers to stabilise markets, letting Indian imports rebound. That waiver has now lapsed for the third time, with little sign of renewal.
Where India Stands
New Delhi has repeatedly said it doesn’t need permission from any country to buy Russian oil, while also signalling it could cut imports by nearly half if pressure intensifies. Meanwhile, the EU has moved to tighten its own rules further, banning imports of refined fuel made from Russian crude in third countries, squeezing Indian exporters from another direction.
What’s at Stake
If Washington reimposes sanctions without fresh exemptions, Indian refiners may again scramble for costlier alternatives from the Middle East and Americas, raising India’s import bill just as it negotiates a broader trade deal with the US. The looming threat of secondary sanctions on buyers adds further uncertainty for refiners and banks handling Russian crude.
Future Scope
Russian Oil: India appears to be hedging, continuing purchases where feasible while building ties with alternative suppliers. But with Washington’s patience thinning and Europe tightening rules in parallel, New Delhi may again have to navigate a narrow path between energy security and its strategic relationship with Washington.
