Weather Updates: A big disappointment in Delhi has been the poor forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The monsoon arrived in the national capital towards the end of June and however welcome the rain was, it was also a little disappointing for residents.
There were several yellow and orange alerts given by the IMD but all of them missed the mark completely.
Monsoon forecasts have failed measurably in the case of Delhi due to the poor interpretation of the data projected. According to experts, weather prediction is a mathematical exercise largely dependent on the accuracy of the data and how this is analysed through highly technical calculations.
Even a slight miscalculation of this data can lead to several inaccuracies of various degrees, which is common when there is no major active system present in a locality.
Experts claim that although scientifically the weather forecast system has improved in a major way during the last five years, weather developments are still tough to predict in a fool-proof way.
The Director-General of the IMD, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, elucidated the complexity of weather prediction and why in certain cases even the top-most body fails to read it correctly.
Mohapatra explains the forecasting issues, “Forecasts can’t be 100 percent accurate, although our 24-hour forecast is correct by almost 80 percent and we have improved it by almost 40 percent in the last five years. Even the five-day forecast is more accurate and the accuracy rate is almost 60 percent.”
However, Mohapatra also accepted that there is much scope to improve in years to come.
IMD is working continuously to improve its system with technological advancements and other systemic changes through the new models. As of now, IMD has 34 active radars through which it gathers information. Six radars have been added in the last three years.
Mohapatra claims, “We are going to increase the number of radars. By 2025, the total number of radars in the country will be 65. In the next few years, we have decided to place four more radars in the Western Himalayan region, 10 radars in the Northeastern region, and 11 additional radars in the plains of North India.”
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