10 Conflicts in Mahayuti Govt That Could Bring Down Devendra Fadnavis Govt! Check Who Can Replace Eknath Shinde as the Kingmaker?

These days, one sentence is being widely discussed in Maharashtra: "Wherever Eknath Shinde has influence, BJP and Ajit Pawar come together..." Anyone interested in politics understands its meaning. Right now, it's clear that the ruling Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra is facing major cracks. This alliance includes BJP, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP.

It is important to note that Maharashtra held its Assembly elections in October last year. Since then, several conflicts and disagreements have emerged within the alliance. Although some leaders have tried to downplay the situation by saying everything is fine, daily reports from Maharashtra are raising questions about the future of Devendra Fadnavis’s government.

Why the Mahayuti Government May Collapse

1. Over the last 11 years, many political alliances have been formed for elections, but the 2024 Mahayuti alliance in Maharashtra stands out. It mainly reflects dissatisfaction among political parties that broke away from larger parties to form this alliance. These include Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. While they appeared united, issues over seat-sharing surfaced before the elections.
2. Though the Maharashtra Assembly election results favored the Mahayuti alliance, there were ongoing political tensions regarding the Chief Minister's position. Reports suggest that after the elections, BJP and Shinde had direct or indirect disputes over the CM post. Sources claim that Shinde wanted to continue as Chief Minister to focus on development projects. However, BJP wanted Devendra Fadnavis as CM. Eventually, BJP’s high command intervened and convinced Shinde to accept the Deputy CM role.
3. Reliable sources say that if Shinde had not agreed, BJP had a backup plan. Uday Samant, a close associate of Shinde, was on BJP’s list of potential leaders. It is said that 20 MLAs from Samant’s group were ready to support BJP. Since Shinde’s Shiv Sena currently has 57 MLAs, losing 20 would have weakened his position. In such a case, BJP would have used the anti-defection law to form a government, replacing Shinde with Uday Samant as Deputy CM. When Shinde realised this, he agreed to become Deputy CM to prevent Samant from rising in power.
4. During the Mahayuti government’s cabinet expansion, there were disputes over the allocation of ministries among the three alliance partners. Reports suggest Shinde wanted the Home Ministry, but BJP did not want to give this crucial department to anyone outside its party. Historically, Chief Ministers rarely give the Home Ministry to someone else. Devendra Fadnavis insisted on keeping it, which led to disagreements. Shinde then requested the Revenue and Urban Development departments, but BJP rejected this too. Eventually, Shinde had no option but to accept the Urban Development department.
5. After the formation of the Mahayuti government, tensions continued regarding the appointment of district ministers. In Nashik, BJP’s Girish Mahajan was appointed, while in Raigad, Ajit Pawar’s party chose Aditi Tatkare. However, Shinde’s Shiv Sena opposed these appointments, forcing the decision to be put on hold within 24 hours. This issue remains unresolved. These districts were previously under Shinde’s control.
6. Sources suggest that the BJP sidelining Shinde from the State Disaster Management Authority restructuring has worsened relations. However, realising the impact, BJP later included Shinde in the process.
7. The Mahayuti government is dealing with multiple disputes. Shinde’s faction is unhappy about the appointment of Maharashtra State Road Transport Corporation’s (MSRTC) chairman. Traditionally, the Transport Minister also held this position. However, in the current government, Transport Minister Pratap Sarnaik (from Shinde’s Shiv Sena) was overlooked, and Additional Chief Secretary Sanjay Sethi was appointed as the MSRTC chairman. This decision remains controversial.
8. Sources claim that Mahayuti’s electoral success was partly due to Shinde’s leadership. His government introduced popular schemes like 'Ladli Behna' and 'Anandacha Shidha,' which provided benefits to women and free ration kits to the poor. However, the Fadnavis government is now imposing strict rules on these schemes, frustrating Shinde. While these schemes are not discontinued, the stricter regulations are causing dissatisfaction among the public. This has led to tensions between BJP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena.
9. Reliable sources claim that Shinde wants to expand his influence beyond Maharashtra, but BJP is not in favor of this. BJP has already started working on a strategy to counter this. Ajit Pawar’s party also attempted to increase its presence, as seen in the Delhi Assembly elections, but failed.
10. Within Mahayuti, BJP has played the dominant role. Despite this, Shinde’s faction has not received the desired positions. A recent example is the reduction in security for 20 MLAs from Shinde’s faction. While security for some Ajit Pawar-led NCP MLAs was also cut, their numbers were much lower than those in Shinde’s party. This has caused further frustration for Shinde.

Shinde’s Actions Indicate Growing Frustration:

The growing tensions between Mahayuti’s key political parties are now becoming more visible. This is not the first time Shinde has skipped important meetings. He has been vocal about his concerns and realises that his next political move in Maharashtra will be challenging. He believes his allies are sidelining him. This is evident from his absence in key cabinet meetings and his reluctance to attend BJP or Ajit Pawar-led meetings. Instead, Shinde has started organising independent meetings and even launched his own relief fund.

These developments indicate a shifting political landscape in Maharashtra, with increasing uncertainty surrounding the Mahayuti government’s stability.