Young boys romanticising about gun-toting bold and aggressive ‘mujahideen’ put out graffiti in the suburbs of Srinagar in an expression of their support. An inquisitive police officer began to enquire into origins of this sudden spurt of enthusiasm. The enquiry culminated in ground-level intelligence leading to the neutralisation of two Pakistani militants. This incident stands as a classic example of the reactive paradigm: a visible anomaly, diligent pursual, critical results. Yet, the very success of this operation underscores a fundamental vulnerability—waiting for the threat to physically manifest before one could act.
This vulnerability, however, has turned into a catastrophic liability. The wave of extremist posters that preceded the Red Fort blast was, in essence, the same visible anomaly as the graffiti, but this time, it was a distraction. By the time the posters appeared, the operational network—a sophisticated module coordinating via encrypted platforms, establishing financial channels, and procuring precursors—was already mature and executing its final stages.
The subsequent investigation confirmed that the entire architecture of the attack existed completely under the radar of conventional surveillance.
This highlights not merely the evolution of threat, but the obsolescence of on-ground methodology. A reactive approach, which relies on the physical signs of propaganda, is no longer a viable strategy against an enemy that operates in the digital ether and the legitimate supply chain.
The modern security challenge demands a decisive shift to predictive intelligence, powered by technology.
Reading “the writing on the wall” is more than a metaphor when it comes to decoding the challenges in the face of Kashmir. As may be culled from the incident of the Srinagar graffiti, it is normal for young adolescents, especially boys, to be attracted to distinct aura of a gun-slinging fear-instilling militant—especially given the lack of options for recreational engagements for children at that age.
However, mere inclination towards the presence of a militant does not imply radicalisation or operational involvement; such an inclination can vary in terms of degrees ranging from mere curiosity to interest to fascination to admiration—which may not have any religious bearings to begin with.
The youth of Kashmir, and the arguably “home-grown crop” of terrorists that have become the hallmark of current times, are a generation born into territorial dispute and sensitive security concerns.
Growing up amid political instability, chronic unemployment, economic challenges, disrupted education, and social anomalies, a common Kashmiri youth is largely shaped by an awry perception of identity and opportunity towards an uncertain future.
Although, despite the instigating factors, the youth of Kashmir may not be drawn to militance right away, but factors like political alienation (from national perspective), personal experiences such as loss of a family member and susceptibility to radicalisation, influence of peer, lack of career opportunities and struggle with identity could forewarn of the “writing on the wall” about youth going astray.
Further, behavioural red flags could be detected from digital footprint of youths: social media, local networks, immediate peer/friends’ circle, etc, indicating a community susceptible to actionable intelligence. And this is how the “writing on the wall” could be read before it is written.
This necessitates a mindful shift from reactive intelligence to predictive intelligence, powered by technology.
We must leverage Big Data Analytics and Artificial Intelligence to fuse disparate data streams—telecom metadata, financial transactions, and supply chain records—into a single, correlated threat picture.
The goal is to move beyond reading the writing on the wall after it has been written. The imperative is to read the invisible digital and physical precursors—the encrypted chatter, the anomalous fertiliser purchase, the clustered behavioural shifts—that allow the writing to happen in the first place.
Only by embracing this technological modernisation can we safeguard the community by identifying the threat before it leaves the drawing board.
