China: Seismic Shift Leads To First Population Decline In China Since The 1960s. China’s population peak was anticipated by the UN to occur in 2031 as recently as in 2019. The world’s second-largest economy, which is grappling with an increasingly catastrophic demographic issue, reached a significant milestone in 2022 when China’s population started to decline for the first time in six decades.
New data shows worrying figures
According to figures issued on Tuesday by the National Statistics Bureau, China had 1.41 billion people at the end of last year, which is 850,000 less than it did at the end of 2021. The Great Famine under previous leader Mao Zedong ended in 1961, making this the first decline since then.
Despite government attempts to encourage couples to have more children, there were 9.56 million births in 2022, down from 10.62 million a year earlier and the lowest number since at least 1950.
10.41 million people died in total, which is somewhat more than the roughly 10 million deaths that were reported in prior years. China unexpectedly abandoned its zero-tolerance policy against the virus in early December, leading to an increase in Covid-related deaths that began last month. More Covid-related deaths are anticipated to occur this year because infections are still spreading across the nation and because fatalities often follow illnesses by a few weeks. This epidemic may result in an increase in mortality this year.
India to overtake China?
The population decline occurred far sooner than anticipated, which might restrain economic development by lowering consumer demand for items like new homes. The Chinese economy may find it difficult to surpass the US in size as a result of the decrease, and the country may lose its title as the world’s most populated nation to India this year.
The UN had previously predicted that China’s population would peak in 2031 and then begin to drop, but it has recently altered that prediction to expect a peak at the beginning of 2022. In addition to the currently declining work force and the expected future decline in housing demand, the government may also find it difficult to pay for the nation’s underfunded national pension system.
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