Retail Inflation: The retail inflation of India increased to 3.40 percent year-over-year in the month of March 2026 as compared to 3.21 percent in February 2026, according to recently-released government data. Interestingly, Reuters’ poll had projected retail inflation at 3.48 percent.
According to data released by Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), retail inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased marginally to 0.71 percent in November 2025 after touching a record low of 0.25 percent.
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Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) predicts that the year-on-year inflation in the food and beverages segment is expected to rise further and cross the mark of 4 percent in the month of April 2026 from 3.7 percent in March 2026, led by edible oils, vegetables and readymade food segments.
Retail Inflation-What’s Next?
Suman Chowdhury, Chief Economist at Small Industries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), remarked that the consumer price index inflation is expected to cross 4 percent next month as the West Asia unrest is likely to feed into prices of certain items like airfares, restaurants and alternate fuels.
Chowdhury added that not much impact has been seen of the surging retail fuel prices as a significant majority of it was absorbed by the oil marketing companies. She added this is the primary reason why India is still witnessing very healthy numbers and good inflation trends.
Madan Sabnavais, Chief Economist at the Bank of Baroda, remarked that a below normal monsoon along with higher oil prices, continuing US Israel Iran conflict and other reasons may lead to inflation.
The released data revealed that commodities recording the highest inflation during the month were silver jewellery that witnessed a 148.61 percent increase in prices and gold jewellery that witnessed a 45.92 percent rise in prices.
CPI inflation for 2026-27
According to RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra, CPI inflation for 2026-27 is likely to be at 4.6 percent with Q1 at 4 percent, Q2 at 4.4 percent, Q3 at 5.2 percent and Q4 at 4.7 percent.
