The oppressive Iranian rulers have continued to reign over the protesters with brutal torment. Badri Hosseini Khamenei, the sister of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei supported the protesters and called for the end of the tyrannical regime. She claimed that the Islamic Republic has brought ‘nothing but suffering and oppression to Iran and Iranians’ since its founding, and urged IRGC to lay down arms. Besides, former President Mohammed Khatami also called on the government of Iran to carry out reforms “before it is too late,” adding that freedom and security do not negate each other. The issue is whether it is already too late for the regime to reform. Should we expect something miraculous after a horrendous assault on otherwise peaceful protests? If not then where it is going to end and what would be the repercussions?
The protests show one thing in common: The rulers have lost their credibility – the system is not working – has become directionless, both domestically and in terms of foreign policy. However, as I have mentioned in my previous column, the regime’s continued rigidity will take a big toll and eventually there would be a huge loss of human lives. The recent so-called abrogation of moral police has brought little or no perceptible change to the perpetrators and innocent civilians. The claims of Iranian Attorney General Mohammed Jafar Montazeri that the notorious morality police was under review do not indicate that the ‘Hijab’ is no longer mandatory.
Meanwhile, after a continuous battering of the peaceful protesters, caving into their demands now risk emboldening them. Also, the demands have transferred from the issue of the ‘Hijab” to denouncing the entire system.
The former President Khatami has warned that the regime might end up at a point of no return
The present ruler is however ideological, but his leadership is at its lowest ebb and his potential successor, his son Mojtaba is highly unpopular. Former President Khatami has also warned that the regime might be at the point of no return and, unless urgent and immediate reforms take place, it might soon be too late. He described the slogan the protesters are chanting, “Woman, life, freedom,” as “a beautiful message that shows movement toward a better future.” He said the regime should recognize the mistakes of governance, while Khamenei’s sister said that she had relayed to her brother the demands of the people and their grievances, only for them to fall on deaf ears.
Immediate fall of the regime may not be fruitful
However, those who are anticipating an immediate fall of the regime should be alarmed by the fact the consequences could be quite harsh and detrimental to the interests of the common man. And also if the regime feels threatened by an imminent fall it would become more desperate and authoritarian. Crises-ridden Iran will surely fall into a trap, with Kurdish and other mighty adversaries may not dissuade to take advantage of the internal turmoil.
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If the government falls without a viable alternative in place, this would definitely result in chaos. The change of guards should be driven systematically in order to ensure minimum chaos. If the regime crumbles under the intense pressure of the protestors, it should not repeat the history of the 1979 revolution that led to a devastating civil war, widespread unrest and mass annihilations in Iran. It should be therefore pragmatic for the government to reach out to moderate elements within the regime and bring about the change necessary to cater to the needs of the common mass, who desire representation and dignity while ensuring the security of the country.
The international community should coordinate for a comfortable landing of those protestors. It is imperative for the international community to identify moderate members of the regime who can bring about change. And how can it engage with them? This is a complicated process.
The Arab Gulf, Israel and the West are in wait-and-watch mode
And any foreign interference might even make the situation worse if not managed properly with the right people. The Arab Gulf, Israel and the West are in wait-and-watch mode. One option could be power changing hands amicably – from the present regime to the moderate Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). How far will it be viable, replacing Khamanei with a figurehead, while IRGC calling the shots is a difficult proposition to answer? IRGC may bring radical reforms domestically and appease popular anger, whereas the foreign policy remains the same.
With all these uncertainties, it is very difficult to design policies on how to deal with the current situation in Iran.
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