India runs on oil that passes through two narrow stretches of water. Iran now holds influence over both. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 30 per cent of India’s crude imports. Tehran controls the northern edge of that waterway directly. Further south, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait links the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, and Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen sit right beside it. Analysts have long warned that Iran could use the Houthis as a proxy force, giving Tehran leverage over a second global chokepoint without firing a shot itself.
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Why Both Routes Matter To India
A Hormuz closure hits supply volumes directly. India’s LPG imports depend on Gulf routes for up to 90 per cent of their volume, and LNG imports rely on the same corridor for around 42 per cent. A Bab el-Mandeb closure works differently. It does not cut supply, but it adds ten to twenty days to voyage times as ships reroute around the Cape of Good Hope, driving up freight and insurance costs.
The Price India Is Already Paying
Brent crude has already climbed past $100 a barrel following the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire. Analysts at CareEdge Ratings say a simultaneous, multi-week closure of both straits could push prices toward $130 to $135 a barrel, adding an estimated $3 to $5 billion a month to India’s crude import bill alone. That pressure would ripple outward, weakening the rupee and widening India’s trade deficit.
A Risk New Delhi Cannot Ignore
With Houthi forces recently seizing new territory along Yemen’s coast, their reach over Bab el-Mandeb is only growing. For India, the message is clear. Energy security no longer depends on just one chokepoint. It depends on two, and Iran holds meaningful sway over both.
